Following the American decision to leave Iraq to the Iraqis, it became more obvious that a united Iraq is only possible with a federal solution. A constitutive element of a federal Iraq is the Kurdistan region and its autonomous administration, the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG). The Iraqis, Sunnis and Shiites, and surrounding countries have to come to terms with this reality. Iran, Turkey and Syria, all of whom have Kurdish enclaves, will only agree to this fact if the KRG is a peaceful ingredient of a sovereign Iraq and does not allow its territory to harbor armed Kurdish elements that threaten their security. This means either the elimination or the transformation of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and its affiliates in the aforementioned countries. It seems that the US has as of late assured Turkey and has been pressuring the KRG to make life hard for the PKK if it wishes to remain in northern Iraq. This must be the “opportunity” being alluded to. Will this be enough to end the decades-long conflict? Is the KRG ready to deny a safe haven to the PKK in its territory?My humble opinion is that the KRG will not let go of the PKK until two developments take place: 1) Once totally against it, the increasingly softened position of Turkey to the existence of the KRG needs to turn into acknowledgement and official cooperation; 2) The likelihood of the dismantling of Iraq's federal structure needs to be left behind. For if Iraq falls apart as a federal entity, there is no doubt that both the Shiites and the Sunnis will not allow regional sovereignty or independence to the Kurds. This means war within Iraq. The KRG will then need all the allies it has, especially a seasoned fighting force with tens of thousands of reserve soldiers -- Kurdish youngsters waiting to join a cause greater than life (at least their life in southeast Turkey). If this conjuncture affords Turkey an “opportunity” to solve its Kurdish problem, so be it.
What about the optimism that is spreading fast with media support? Its source is the words of President Abdullah Gül. Mr. Gül says there has never been a better time to produce a solution. He must know something that we don't. Is the government ready to grant all the rights that the Kurds have been demanding so far and shedding blood for? Can these rights be afforded without procuring the consent of other political parties and building up favorable public opinion? Has the government come with a strategic plan to convince the public that whatever will be done will not be a “concession” but simply a handing down of civic rights to the Kurds? We don't know, but isn't it the right of the people to ask “If these are rights and not privileges, why did you withhold them for decades, leading to a fratricide that cost this country so much?” Similarly, who will approve of the government's new policies or the “civic peace plan” that has to be implemented -- the hard-liner Kurds who have been carrying on the armed struggle, or the moderates who reject violence and identity politics (but demand respect and acknowledgement of their Kurdish cultural identity)? Has there been any official contact with both popular groups for their support of a government peace and integration plan that the public does not yet know about?
Finally, is there really a consensus among the agencies of the government? Do the soldiers think like the civilians? Have political parties that have always differed in outlook and methodology in dealing with this sensitive issue, one that has been soaked with blood for so long, agreed on a common agenda that fundamentally differs from the classical “search and destroy” strategy? Is the public, which has been motivated to send its sons to destroy an enemy within and is often shaken by their loss, ready to steer away from the “internal enemy” line to the fraternal solidarity rhetoric and spirit so easily and in such a short time? So what national consensus are we talking about? I really do not know the answers.
Does anyone?
One day, Turkey's “Kurdish problem” will be solved. It has cost this country dearly both in human and economic terms. No one with the wrong answers and methodology that led to this hemorrhage will be held accountable. But at least let us seize this opportune moment of optimism to ponder what went wrong in the past so that we can believe in a better future rather than wait for miracles to happen. Mind you, miracles are the doings of benevolent others for our sake; now it is our time to do something good for us with our own will and toil.
