It was what some might call a quintessentially Belgian issue that caused the country’s federal government to collapse on April 22, prompting early elections on June 13. The coalition Open Flemish Liberals and Democrats party (Open VLD) abandoned its trust in the federal government because of the protracted negotiations on the highly symbolic dossier of Brussels-Halle-Vilvoorde (BHV). The BHV issue, a long-running dispute on the special voting rights of French speakers living in Dutch-speaking areas in the periphery of the capital Brussels, is a particularly poignant example of the strained political relations between the two major linguistic communities in Belgium -- Dutch-speaking Flanders in the north and French-speaking Wallonia in the south. The collapse of the government and ensuing federal elections brought two main victors to the stage: Bart De Wever and his New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) in the north, and Elio Di Rupo of the Socialist Party (PS) in the French-speaking south of the country. The Flemish Christian Democrats (CD&V) of resigning Prime Minister Yves Leterme were hit hard and lost six of their 23 seats in the federal parliament. Coalition partners Open VLD and MR were equally punished by the voters, each in its turn losing five parliamentary seats. Yet it is Leterme and his incumbent government who will take the helm of the Belgian EU presidency until a new coalition has been formed.
Modest ambitions
According to Carl Devos, professor of political science at Ghent University, the impact of the Belgian government formation on the country’s EU presidency will hardly be noticed abroad. “The resigning government has prepared for the EU presidency very thoroughly. There is also a large consensus in Belgium on European affairs. We are a founding member of the EU, and nearly all political parties are in favor of far-reaching European integration. So I don’t think that the fact that the incumbent government will be in charge will act as a brake on the presidency,” Devos told Sunday’s Zaman.
Devos also points out that since the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty, which created a long-term president of the European Council, the role and importance of the rotating presidency has drastically decreased. “Belgium also doesn’t have a very ambitious program for its presidency. It mainly wants to focus on running the EU in a good way, without putting forward big new goals. So the presidency will be rather modest,” Devos said.
Professor Devos believes that even for Belgian citizens themselves the presidency will probably pass by without too much attention. “It will be the domestic government formation and the party squabbles that will grab the spotlight,” Devos thinks.
Financial markets
The coalition formation may go on for quite some time. After the 2007 elections that propelled outgoing Prime Minister Yves Leterme into the driver’s seat, it took 194 days -- a national record -- to form a federal government.
Still this time around there is reason to believe that the coalition formation will not drag along quite as long. For one, the election results are not as fragmented as in 2007. Two parties, N-VA and PS, hold 53 out of 150 parliamentary seats. If they manage to come to an agreement, it will be difficult for other parties, both north and south of the language boundary, to not follow suit when asked to join the coalition.
Secondly, after three years of failed institutional talks between the Flemish majority and the French-speaking minority with a government that stumbled from one political crisis to another, there now seems to be a sense of urgency with the major political players. This is not only inspired by the political stalemate and lack of progress that plagued the outgoing government but also by the increased awareness that the international financial markets -- anxious for a new financial debacle -- are keeping a weather eye on the Belgian coalition formation.
Although it is economically and financially much sounder than Greece, Spain or Portugal, Belgium still boasts the third highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the eurozone, after Greece and Italy. Economic analysts fear that protracted coalition negotiations might raise questions about the political stability and ultimately the future of the linguistically divided country, which could lead nervous foreign investors to dump Belgian state bonds for what they deem to be safer government paper.
Confederal model
Election victor De Wever has already said that he hopes to reach the final phase of the formation by Sept. 1, traditionally also the first day of school for Belgian children. That might seem a world of time, but it would be a great success given the challenges ahead. Not only will De Wever have to cobble together a coalition to tackle the ballooning national debt and to carry out much-needed socio-economic reforms, there is also the sensitive issue of institutional reform.
The N-VA, which advocates the gradual dissolution of the Belgian state toward an independent Flanders, won the elections on the promise of reforming the federal state toward a more confederal model, which would require a two-thirds majority to alter the constitution. In this new model, the political center of gravity would shift more toward the three Belgian regions -- Dutch-speaking Flanders in the north, French-speaking Wallonia in the south and the bilingual Brussels-Capital region.
This call for greater regional autonomy is not new for the Flemish parties but has traditionally been met with little enthusiasm by their French-speaking counterparts. Yet now most French-speaking parties have also stated that they are open to a significant reform of the state. That mutual understanding will be key to finding a balanced compromise, a move which Devos believes would burnish Belgium’s image abroad.
“The EU presidency will also focus the attention of foreign media on the domestic political situation. If the coalition talks hit a dead end, it will have very little impact on the EU presidency, but it will reinforce the image that Belgium often has abroad of a small country at odds with itself. A good compromise reached in a respectful atmosphere would help counter that perception.”
Diplomacy
