The countdown clock can be seen on Greenpeace Mediterranean’s Turkish Web site, where a signature campaign invites visitors to ask the prime minister of Turkey to go to Copenhagen and say “one minute” in the face of alarming signs of global warming caused by carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions. “Turkey is establishing itself on the world scene as a country that stands up for unfairly treated communities in the world, being a voice for them,” said Uygar Özesmi, executive director of Greenpeace Mediterranean, referring to Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Jan. 29 walkout in Davos in protest of Israel’s policies in Gaza.
“We would like him to stand up for future generations and challenge every developing country to take on the responsibility and show them that even a country like Turkey, which is less responsible for causing climate change, is ready to take steps,” he said.
Danish PM Lars Løkke Rasmussen sent invitations to 191 world leaders to attend the Dec. 7-18 conference in Copenhagen. “Your personal attendance is a pivotal contribution to a successful outcome,” says the letter from Rasmussen, who will chair the talks aimed at reaching a new global accord to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which will expire in 2012, to curb emissions of greenhouse gases blamed for climate change. At least 40 leaders have said they plan to attend the conference, and among them are British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Dutch Prime Minister Jan Peter Balkenende.
President Barack Obama has said he may come. A US delegate to the climate talks, Jane Lubchenco, recently said in Copenhagen that Obama believes an agreement next month is “critically important” and that he is “actively considering” attending the meeting. “The Copenhagen conference is very important,” said Haluk Özdalga, chairman of the Turkish Parliament’s Environment Commission. He plans to attend the Copenhagen conference.
Özdalga, who convinced Prime Minister Erdoğan to ratify the Kyoto Protocol this year, on Thursday hosted a conference in İstanbul titled “Climate Change, Global Threats & Low Carbon Prosperity Toward Copenhagen,” in which climate experts from academia, civil society and relevant ministries were present to discuss where Turkey and other countries stand.
He said he will be able to encourage Erdoğan to participate in the Copenhagen conference if issues such as financing and technology transfer are clarified. Until then, he said, Turkey’s commitment to ambitious reduction targets is not likely.
News develops quickly ahead of Copenhagen
The success of the Copenhagen conference is seen as dependent in part on the commitments of the US administration as less developed nations threaten to walk out unless rich countries such as America agree to cut their emissions. But the US cannot commit to legally binding emission targets before they are approved by Congress.
Moreover, the latest round of UN talks in Barcelona this month ended in deadlock since countries failed to agree on a framework to share the burden of fighting climate change.
UN scientists say rich countries must cut carbon emissions by 25 to 40 percent from 1990 levels by 2020 to prevent the Earth’s temperatures from rising by 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above its average temperature before the industrial era began 150 years ago.
Developing countries should also limit their emissions and must adapt to the effects of climate change, including floods and drought. But they need money. UN climate chief Yvo de Boer has called for an initial $10 billion in funding to be offered by rich nations in Copenhagen. European Union leaders say developing countries would need 100 billion euros ($148 billion) by 2020.
However, industrialized countries have yet to unveil specific amounts to help poor countries fight global warming.
Turkey’s emissions are low but increasing fast
The picture before the Copenhagen meeting is that it might become a “leaders’ summit” where the world will make a “political agreement” on cutting emissions without specific targets. A legal treaty is expected to come out later.
Nevertheless, there is still time until the conference and news happens fast. The United States and Japan stated in Tokyo on Friday that they had agreed to expand cooperation in clean energy technologies in an effort to tackle climate change. President Obama and Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama said in a joint statement that Tokyo and Washington will aim at reductions in their own greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent by 2050 and back a global goal to halve emissions by mid-century.
Sedat Kadıoğlu, the deputy undersecretary of the Ministry of Environment and Forestry, said Turkey’s reduction target appears to be 11 percent by 2020 if current efforts continue.
He also said the figure might change after a Nov. 18 meeting of Turkey’s Climate Change Coordination Board.
Per capita annual emissions in Turkey are 4.5 tons compared to 23.5 tons in the United States and 11 tons in Denmark. But its emissions have risen quickly, from 170 million tons in 1990 to 372 million tons in 2007 as its annual per capita income rose from $3,000 in 1990 to $10,000 in 2007.
Turkish officials say the country will continue to grow. Etem Karakaya, a professor of economics at Adnan Menderes University, said it is understandable that Turkey will continue its economic development, but noted that as an advanced developing country, it must adopt nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) or no-lose targets to achieve more reductions in its emissions. This could indeed provide Turkey about a 15-30 percent reduction in its emissions by 2020.
Karakaya also said that if Turkey, a candidate country for membership in the EU, adopts a 20 percent no-lose reduction target, its emissions per capita in 2020 will be around 5.13 tons, which is consistent with the EU average of 5.44 tons.
The EU targets a 20 percent reduction in its emissions by 2020 compared to 1990 levels even if there is no agreement in Copenhagen. If there is an agreement, the EU aims to make this a 30 percent reduction. The official Turkish delegation going to Copenhagen will brace for challenges related to Turkey’s unique position as an advanced developing country. Turkey was classified by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 as an industrial country -- or an Annex-I country -- because of its membership in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) even though it was not an industrialized country.
Turkey even was in the group of countries under Annex-II, which is the list of relatively advanced industrialized countries that have committed themselves to financial and technical transfers to developing countries. After Turkey’s objections, it was removed in 2001 from Annex-II and placed in a situation different from other Annex-I countries that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol and committed to reduce their emission levels of greenhouse gasses to targets that are set below their 1990 levels.
As a result, Turkey became free from emission reduction commitments even though it ratified the Kyoto Protocol on Aug. 26, and Turkish officials want to keep it that way unless financial support and technology transfer are offered.
On the other hand, Environment and Forestry Minister Veysel Eroğlu said Turkey is in a region that is quite vulnerable to climate change and that the country is indeed committed to the implementation of policies and measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Giving examples from all sectors regarding quantitative reduction efforts, he said that as a result of the Energy Efficiency Law, 75 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions will be cut by 2020. He also said Turkey should issue a call to the world in Copenhagen to establish a fund to help the developing world start a forestation campaign. He said Turkey’s domestic target is to plant 2.3 million hectares of forestland by 2013 to address about 191 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions.
Civil society and private sector not in picture
Tanay Sıdkı Uyar, director of Marmara University’s New Technologies Research and Application Center and coordinator of TÜRÇEP, an environmental civil society platform, said neither the Ministry of Environment and Forestry nor the Ministry of Energy have taken the views of civil society into consideration. “Turkey is not ready for the post-Kyoto period. Enough steps have not been taken toward a non-carbon economy,” he said. “Ministries do not have enough contact with civil society representatives.”
A similar complaint came from the representatives of Greenpeace and the World Wide Fund For Nature (WWF) in Turkey. WWF-Turkey General Director Filiz Demirayak said their expertise and connections are not utilized by the government.
Meanwhile, the business world is aware of the challenges that come with climate change, but is short of funds because the economic crisis has stretched all budgets. Kumru Adanalı, the director of UTES, a civil society initiative established by the private sector to learn from the British experience in facing climate change, said the private sector needs funds to adapt to the new environment.
“There are new opportunities for businesses to make a transition to, for example, renewable energy technologies, but the private sector needs financial and technological support mechanisms to do it,” she said. Meanwhile, a delegation from the Turkish Industrialists and Businessmen’s Association (TÜSİAD) is planning to participate in the upcoming climate conference in Copenhagen.
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