Speaking to Sunday's Zaman, Yaşar Onart, a professor at Işık University, said the project will only be operational if Russia allows it. “Nabucco may never bypass Russia. Russia will do anything it can to contain Nabucco,” he said. Calling Nabucco a project to boycott Russia, Onart explained: “In reality, Nabucco will not sidestep Russia, as Russia controls Caspian gas. If Nabucco bypasses Russia, it will shake Russia's prestige in the region, something Russia will not allow.”The Nabucco gas pipeline is considered the rival of South Stream, the alternative Russian pipeline intending to bring natural gas from Central Asia through the Black Sea region to Europe. The Russian South Stream project will pass through Turkey's territorial waters, bypassing Ukraine, which had serious disputes with Russia over natural gas supplies and prices during the last two years. Notable attempts were made by Russia to deter potential Caspian-basin Nabucco suppliers. The June 29 gas deal between Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Azerbaijani President İlham Aliyev aimed to hinder the Nabucco project. However, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, which are part of the Caspian basin, have announced their pledge to provide the Nabucco gas pipeline the necessary gas resources. Rovnag Abdullayev, head of State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR), announced last month that Azerbaijan's gas reserves are sufficient to supply more than one pipeline project. “Azerbaijan's gas reserves are very rich. We can supply gas to each project separately,” he asserted. Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow has stated that Turkmenistan is willing to be a natural gas supplier for the Nabucco gas pipeline as well.
However, recent disputes that have emerged between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan have not gone unnoticed by analysts. The Turkmen leader told his government to address the International Court of Arbitration over a dispute concerning oil resources in the Caspian Sea. Vafa Guluzade, head of the Caspian Research Center, says it is Russia who backed the behaviors of Turkmenistan. Optimistic about the Nabucco project, political analysts think this dispute is simply the continuation of Russian regional policy. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin reiterated in a statement that Russia is not against the construction of the Nabucco pipeline but warned countries to remember “where the gas will come from.”
Speaking to Sunday's Zaman, Center for International Relations and Strategic Analysis (TÜRKSAM) head Sinan Oğan said the Nagorno-Karabakh problem should be taken into account when analyzing Azerbaijani-Russian relations. “Russia and Azerbaijan agreed because Russia promised to help solve the Nagorno-Karabakh problem,” he said. Oğan underlined that Azerbaijan will continue its balanced foreign policy after the deal. Calling issues with Turkmenistan a bigger problem, the expert stated that Turkmenistan's decision to sue Azerbaijan in the last minute over the status of the Caspian Sea can create a problem for the Nabucco pipeline's gas supply. “It seems it will be a problem,” he concluded.
Rövşen İbrahimov, head of the department of international relations at Baku Qafqaz University, said Russia tries to prevent Azerbaijani and Turkmen gas from being exported to the West using several methods, including the unresolved status of the Caspian Sea and environmental issues concerning the possible construction of a trans-Caspian pipeline. “But more importantly,” he said, “Russia already agreed to buy all the additional volume of gas which is produced in both states for market price.” He added that both states try to maintain a positive relationship Russia, especially after its intervention in Georgia in August 2008. Recalling Azerbaijan's similar Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, the expert stated that securing a gas supply to the Nabucco project requires strong support from Western states, notably the United States. Mentioning Nabucco's plans to transport gas from Central Asian countries such as Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, İbrahimov pointed out: “Multi-dimensioned work should be done in that direction -- to make possible the involvement of these states in the project. The political intention and the willingness of the elites of these states, the additional investment in increasing the production of gas and the construction of a trans-Caspian pipeline is needed. In this case, the role of the US is crucial.”
Nabucco, scheduled to be completed in 2014, will decrease the EU's reliance on Russian natural gas supply if it is completed successfully. Caspian-basin countries, especially Azerbaijan, are considered the most likely gas suppliers for the project. The gas that will go through Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary will be consumed by European countries.
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