Such indicators, as many have suggested, will need to form a trend over several months before anything can be predicted with any accuracy. No, it's not to these indicators but rather a quirky little economic footnote that Greenspan will likely be looking at when deciding whether the economy is on its way up: men's underwear sales.Gauging the state of the economy is a tricky business. While standard economic theories rely on such variables as home foreclosure numbers, unemployment figures, the number of credit card defaults and so on in order to figure out if the economy has tanked, some economists, such as Greenspan, have suggested that a more accurate, if not eccentric barometer of the economy lies in men's dresser drawers. Much like a canary used to detect “undetectable” gases in a coal mine.
The good news is that sales in men's underwear lend credence to the view that Turkey's increasing capacity utilization and industrial output are not just temporary deviations but rather signs that Turkey's economy has at long last begun bottoming out.
As recounted by National Public Radio (NPR) announcer Robert Krulwich in 2008, Greenspan believed that men's briefs were amongst the most accurate indicators of the state of a crisis. "If you look at sales of male underpants, it's just pretty much a flat line, it hardly ever changes,” said Krulwich. “But on those few occasions where it dips that means that men are so pinched that they are deciding not to replace underpants. And [Greenspan] said 'that is almost always a prescient, forward impression that here comes trouble'.”
Matt Hall, spokesman for the producer of Hanes brand underpants, was quoted recently in the Huffington Post as supporting this contention by saying: "Men's basic apparel products probably have the least fluctuating sales of all. But recessions impact all categories, and men's underwear sales are no different. ...” According to him, “Men's underwear is a replenishment item. If you see a dip in the market it is because of the economy. They tend to be later going into the recession and earlier coming back. Men certainly aren't wearing underwear less frequently than before."
But the shift is probably not so much a purely financial shift as it is a psychological shift. At the end of the day, most men's underwear is relatively inexpensive. And underwear can be concealed, and so in men's minds, it doesn't much matter if no one can see them. Sure enough, a survey of the various undergarment retailers and manufacturers in Eminönü would at least seem to support all of these contentions.
Nestled amongst piles of men's and women's undergarments in a small roadside retail store called Uygun Ticaret in Eminönü, sat Cem Erdoğan, sales manager for the store, as well as İsmail Yıldırım, sales manager of Pamuk Yıldız Çamaşırları, a wholesaler of undergarments and lingerie. According to both men, it was not until 2009 that sales started to dip. And dip they did.
Despite an effective price freeze on their undergarments from 2007 to the present, which served to keep their sales more or less level during 2008, sales were reported to have started to dip in the latter months of 2008. Come January 2009, sales began nose diving -- several months after the “crisis” had been generally acknowledged. Both men, one a retailer and the other a wholesaler, reported sales plummeting by as much as 50 percent beginning in January and continuing right through to May. This month, both men agreed, volumes were starting to move upwards -- good news for those who subscribe to the view that underwear sales are amongst the first to spring back to life when the economy begins improving.
A similar contention was made by Semih Kızıllörs, sales manager for a company that distributes men and women's undergarments who claimed to have been in the business for 16 years. Although he said that crisis always affects their business, this crisis had been particularly harsh for business. Like the others Sunday's Zaman spoke with, he put sales as being down by 50 percent. He, too, said that it was not until this year when things really started to take a beating.
Consistent with Greenspan's contention that focuses on men's underwear -- as opposed to women's -- he said that there had not been anywhere near as much change in the volume of sales of women's undergarments: “Underwear is important for women,” Kızılörs reasoned, “and buying new underwear is something they refuse to compromise on.” Interestingly, he reported the same did not apply to women's bras. Calling over to Melih, one of his export salesmen, the man came over with an armload of women's underwear and showed that regardless of price or style, women's panties continued to sell at pre-crisis levels. Rummaging through the pile he brought over, Melih pulled out boxes of top/bottom sets and said that that they, too, were down by as much as 30 percent.
Kadir Erdem, owner of By Donju in the Yeşildirek district of İstanbul, explained what he felt was the main dynamic affecting this: “If there is a crisis and women have money, they continue buying underwear. If there is a crisis and men have money, they don't buy.” Sure enough, his sales were down by the same proportion.
Manufacturers reported parallel experiences. Onur Özdinç, a sales representative at the Anıl Lingerie factory, told Sunday's Zaman that men's underwear production had not been effected at all by the crisis. And production of their women's lines, especially since shifting their focus from premium production underwear to lower grade lines, was reported to have doubled. Their premium brands of women's underwear, he reported, were only moderately down.
While the claims of salesmen always need to be taken with a grain of salt, Bahar Özdinç, who, in addition to being the owner of Anıl Underwear, is also the president of the Underwear Industrialists' Foundation (TİGSAD), was better positioned to provide an authoritative industry overview; while there was a marked decline in both women and men's underwear, men's underwear sales were suffering a far greater contraction. And although he could not provide exact figures, “it is clear that sales have begun improving.”
Great news for those who believe that men's underwear sales work like the canaries used to in coal mines. And for those guys whose underwear is now in tatters.
National
