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17 April 2014, Thursday
 
 
Today's Zaman
 
 
 
 
COLUMNISTS 3 April 2012, Tuesday 20 0
0
ZAUR SHIRIYEV
z.shiriyev@todayszaman.com
ZAUR SHIRIYEV

The Iran-Israel military sandwich

News often means the opposite of what it appears to say in the Middle East, as demonstrated by the “news bombing” over recent days regarding the Israel-Iran tensions. Reporting about the possible military attack on Iran and the story that Azerbaijan has given an air base to Israel has led to the Caucasus region, particularly Azerbaijan, becoming sandwiched by the rising Iran-Israel antagonism. New information anonymously leaked to the media, allegedly from former senior US diplomats and military intelligence officers, claims that Azerbaijan is allowing Israel to locate a military air base on its territory.

Despite Baku’s denials, this will clearly further damage the already fraught relationship between Azerbaijan and Iran. Undoubtedly, the Iranian government openly disapproves of Azerbaijan’s friendly relations with Israel, a partnership that includes over a billion dollars worth of trade between the two countries.

Meanwhile, Israel has recently supplied Azerbaijan with a $1.6 billion arms deal to which Iran reacted angrily. Thereafter Azerbaijani Defense Minister Safar Abiyev visited Iran in early March and promised that Azerbaijan will not be a platform for a military strike. Several recent news reports have mentioned that Azerbaijani territory can be used for landing, but for any type of aircraft to enter another state’s sovereign airspace, some kind of formal arrangement is required. But Azerbaijan does not have any such deals with Israel, civilian aviation aside, so no military bases, including airports, can be used at any point of an attack. Besides, why send planes, if you can strike with rockets and coordinate a strike with unmanned drones -- something Israel is fully capable of doing from the comfort of Tel Aviv while keeping all of its military assets ready for counterstrikes. In this sense, it seems that Azerbaijan could participate in a military solution regarding the Iran issue only if there was a legal mandate and it could lend its territory for transit of non-military goods.

Ronald Reagan’s famous advice to “trust, but verify” sheds a useful light here -- we see two possible scenarios behind the recent media leaks.

On the one hand, it seems likely that the US administration orchestrated the leak, aiming to stop Israel’s unilateral strike against Iran -- it is important for the Obama administration to avoiding getting embroiled in a new war on the eve of elections. Invading Iran and a “regime change” was the ideal goal of the Neo-Cons during the Bush presidency and was supported by their analysis.  The current strategy has the same aim: to make it more difficult for Israeli decision makers to order Israel to carry out a strike against Iran. In this sense, what happened during the first Gulf War is being repeated: the US insisted that Israel should stay away, and despite Iraqi attacks on Israeli cities, they did not retaliate. The purpose of this containment was to prevent a break in the coalition that included Arab countries. Military expert Reshad Karimov reflects, “Americans are clearly putting pressure on Israel by speculating about an Israeli strike and by bringing Azerbaijani-Israeli relations to the table during the worst time in this relationship, and without casting a shadow on their partner in the region, Georgia -- which has a clear record of going to war without prior strategy.”

The second possibility is that it could be a joint US-Israeli plan, focusing on Israeli military cooperation with Baku in order to confuse Turkey, to suggest that Iran is playing a dangerous game with its ally Azerbaijan. How could this happen?  One the one hand, Israel is exaggerating the scale of its military cooperation with Azerbaijan in order to fuel tensions between Baku and Tehran, and in this regard, Iran could become angry and release the first strike against Azerbaijan, which could in turn give casus belli to the US/Israel. In this case it would be easy to get support from the international community on a legal basis. All the signs seem to indicate that this is a possibility. According to military expert Jasur Sumarinly, “If we look at the media, it seems that the US and Israel are dividing on the strike against Iran, but this is a good information strategy, the ultimate goal being to anger Iran and await its sabotage strike against Azerbaijan.” Alexander Murinson, an Israeli-American scholar of Tel Aviv’s Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, says that “On substance, there is a lot of innuendo and conjecture about Israeli military cooperation with Azerbaijan. All quotes are without attribution and/or from ex-US officials (mostly retired). So, the article certainly raised temperatures in Tehran (which might be a good thing) and upset Turkey, which is playing cutesy with the Mullah’s regime.” In this sense, it looks as if Israel is also calculating Turkey’s possible role, as leaking such information could make Turkey unhappy with Azerbaijan. In a previous military crisis involving Iran, in 2001, Turkey stopped Iran’s military sabotage of Azerbaijan’s Caspian energy. But now if there are tensions between Baku and Ankara, Israel could present itself as Azerbaijan’s “security guarantor.” If we see news headlines about an air base named Azerbaijan, logically the US/Israel could see the key to the Iranian problem as Azerbaijan -- both in Azerbaijan, and amongst the 20 million Azerbaijani Turks living in Iran.

From a rational standpoint, and if the lessons learned from Iraq are of any value, destabilizing Iran would amount to serious chaos in the exact same region. But it seems that this game is not only in the interests of US/Israel and hardliners in Iran; the main difference is that Iran is waiting for attack by Israel, not wanting to attack first. Hardliners could benefit tremendously from an attack and the extremist faction within the Islamic Republic will able to capitalize on the instability in the region and present themselves as the only viable saviors of Iran.

In any case, what we have are a lot of “unknown unknowns,” but one thing is clear: no war is to the benefit of Azerbaijan, and it seems that the US will prefer to conduct its policy on Iran with the Sun Tzu’s consul of “build your opponent a golden bridge to retreat across.”

COMMENTS
Dear editor of TZ, Why are you publishing such comments? Most of them rasict, or harshly critisize author. It's discturbing us, as a reader. Ps: I really like piece! best, Kolin
Kolin
@necati, racist cowards like you are only brave behind their computer screen. You have no honor to join anything you little parasite. Crawl back into your cave before I crush you like a cockroach.
Ararat
There is no village beyond death ..What is Azerbaijan waiting for ? hard to understand...
necati
Azerbaijan army should enter Karabagh today, now to free it from the illegal invasion of terrorist armenia. i would be so honored to join Azerbaijan Army if it happens.
necati
Ariel Cohen. I invite Israel, and TODAY, to facilitate Armenias entry to the outside world, and we will close our borders with Iran.Just because Armenia uses Iran as a stepping stone to the outside door, should Not make you hate Armenia or Armenians. Stop playing the hate card here. Hate caused my A...
Preston Bagrationi
Aliev and his teen age son should keep on buying million dollar properties in Dubai and elsewhere because that is where they are going to end up sooner or later. How much can one person or family steal from their own country? One cannot think how naïve Azerbaijan can be. The example is next to them,...
Saaten Maagar
@Avery carefully read "The international sanctions against Iran to prevent the development of economic relations with Armenia. These serious limitations, of course, is not in our interests. They limit the ability to diversify our economy, raise the geopolitical risks to Armenia; hurt investment att...
Shults
The fact that Azerbaijan has close ties with Israel, including the oil agreement, does not justify the flights of fancy Foreign policy magazine. From a military point of view, everything is very simple. Azerbaijan is explicitly included in anti-Iranian plans for Israel. America began a very dangerou...
Elish
iran should watch our sellout government very carfully as erdogan and them are showing there true face as israeli/american puppets.
truth
Countries have no friends .They only have interests,and now it is in the interest of both,Israel and Azerbaijan to be friends .
nate
Analyses like these assumes incorrectly that Governmet and people are one or aproximately one.Soon iran will show that this is not the case.Iran now flixing its muscle for period of extensive agetation .It is working in Yemen , Afghanistan ,Suidi control Zone, Turkey soon follow. ,Aze...
Esfandyar
I think Israel and Azerbaijan have long had strong relations for practical reasons: They both faced invasion by hostile powers upon their independence, and they continue to face neighbors who seek to undermine their stability.It is armenia and iran.It is in Azerbaijan’s interests to cultivate relati...
Ariel Cohen
Azerbaijan, whose Turkic tribes are a minority in the country, is ripe for disintegration. More than 50% are non-Turkic minorities in Azerbaijan. Aliyev clan itself is of Kurdish origin. The best thing for Armenia would be for Azerbaijan to allow Israel to use its airfields for attack on Iran. Great...
Shults
No need to act like small children, and this one is for you necati. And don't fool yourself thinking that Israel is Azerbaijan's best friend or vice versa. There has never been a Muslim country friendly to Israel, not yet. These are "on the spot political handshakes" that do Not last for long. The a...
Preston Bagrationi
Azerbaijan, whose Turkic tribes are a minority in the country, is ripe for disintegration. More than 50% are non-Turkic minorities in Azerbaijan. Aliyev clan itself is of Kurdish origin. The best thing for Armenia would be for Azerbaijan to allow Israel to use its airfields for attack on Iran. The a...
Avery
Real root of Iran's problam with Azerbaijan is behind of Azerbaijani Turks population in Iran and the national awaking of them. But Israel and US dont want to use this Achilles tendon of Iran; because if Azerbaijani Turks in Iran gets more power the position of Turkey will be rise in region and the ...
Tebrizlioglu
West(including Israel) can not establish itself in the South Caucasus and Central Asia without Azerbaijan. Pro-fascist regime in Armenia is a very devoted friend of Iran and anti-western outpost of Russia, a strategic bridge between Russia and Iran. Azerbaijan has two ways: either to become an out...
Santa Claus
Sounds like you have problem -- Russia and Iran are now opponents. Azerbaijan brought this on itself. As for the issue of relations with Israel, these were openly pursued by the Azerbaijanis since independence for both weaponry and and political support through AIPAC. Now, the Baku regime is lear...
Jack Kalpakian
Regardless of whether Barack Obama wants it or does not want we will bomb Iran. Whether you like it or not comrade Obama we will strike Iran.
Leon Aron
1.6Bil USD arms means nothing unless Azerbaijan use them to take back Mountainous Karabagh that terrorist sate armenia invaded illegally .
necati
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